Report Archive - PI: Datastream
- 01-Mar-2010
In this study, we examine the current state of the fixed income/CDS market and analyze CDS performance by sector in the US. Our analysis also seeks to determine: a) if the CDS market is stabilizing, b) if the market is correctly pricing credit risk, c) the attractiveness of bonds relative to equities for investment, and d) the relative risk levels of major regions across the world.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Radhika Kamath
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
economics,
interest rates
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- 22-Feb-2010
Does the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicate a revival in the flow of credit? Can survey data help forecast economic activity? Which economic measures correlate well with the survey’s results? Herein, we show how the survey data correspond to real economic variables.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Amitesh Kumar
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
economics,
interest rates
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- 03-Dec-2009
Based on a gold price behavior pattern that can be traced back to 1968, the price of gold may appear headed for a significant correction, potentially opening the door for a strong dollar period and concomitant commodity price stagnation or decline.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Juan Crespo
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
gold
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- 23-Nov-2009
Tracking recent signs of improvement in consumer spending, we’ve probed even deeper to examine factors likely to affect the consumer’s ability to spend this holiday season. These dynamics include changes in personal income, savings, and credit usage, among others, versus rates of change in consumption spending. This Product Insight also examines actions that retailers are taking to woo customers, and identifies retailers that might benefit in light of the challenging climate and shift in consumer behaviors and expectations.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Jharonne Martis
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
same store sales
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- 11-Nov-2009
China’s foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $ 2.27 trillion in Q3 2009, equivalent to about 50% of the country’s GDP, prompting questions about currency undervaluation. By examining historical data on China’s forex reserves, balance of payments, exports, and RMB/USD exchange rates, our analyses shed light on the major sources of the build-up in reserves, the high correlation between annual increases in BoP surpluses and forex reserves, and the major drivers of BoP surpluses. Further, using a relative purchasing power parity approach, our results indicate that the RMB is currently undervalued by about 4%.
- Regions:
China
- Authors:
Radhika Kamath
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
currency,
foreign exchange
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- 20-Aug-2009
We apply time series data to the Taylor rule, a tool used by many central bankers to gauge what might be an "optimal" short-term interest rate. By combining historical data for GDP, CPI, inflation, and interest rates, our analyses reveal several interesting findings about U.S. Fed policy in combating inflation in the 1980s, factoring in the new economy’s increased productivity in the 1990s, and managing the tumult of the 2007-2009 recession. As a predictive tool, our Taylor rule scenarios suggest negative real rates through Q3 2010. Datastream enables users to generate many such sophisticated economic analyses and forecasts . . .
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Radhika Kamath
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
economics,
interest rates
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- 05-Aug-2009
Thanks largely to the 2003-07 oil price surge, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets have attracted widespread attention. In general, GCC appears to behave like the world’s most established markets, and has almost mirrored US sectoral performance for the last 12 months, suggesting similar allocation strategies for the two regions. A Datastream User Created Index of GCC companies ranked by volatility shows that appetite for high-beta GCC stocks may be rebounding more quickly than appetite for stocks of lower volatility.
- Regions:
Middle East
- Authors:
Amitesh Kumar
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
capital markets,
oil
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- 04-Jun-2009
The S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date high in May after suffering earlier in the year. The market picked up steam after Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech on March 10, 2009, which described a strategy to help put the U.S. economy back on track. The market gained even more after the Fed’s announcement to inject $1 trillion into the financial system by buying treasury bonds and mortgage securities.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Amitesh Kumar
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
economics
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- 27-Mar-2009
One way to judge the relative worth of gold is to compare it and other commodities in terms of a currency index, removing currency fluctuations from both prices. We used trade-weighted dollars. Shown this way, the price of gold and gold’s price change versus other commodity prices gives a view of inflation expectations. We used Thomson Reuters Datastream to compare currency-adjusted gold with a similarly adjusted CRB commodity index. This view indicates that gold is at a greater price extreme relative to other commodities than it was in the early 1980s, near the end of a decade-long bull run for the metal.
- Regions:
Global
- Authors:
Radhika Kamath
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
gold
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- 16-Mar-2009
Real rates went negative in late 2007 and remained that way throughout 2008. Consumers and businesses were losing purchasing power if they were holding cash during that period because inflation was higher than the interest paid on a risk-free investment such as a Treasury security. Real rates remain negative as of mid-February 2009.
- Regions:
United States
- Authors:
Mike Tarsala
- Products:
Datastream
- Keywords:
interest rates
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