This country ranking study analyzes five core national economic metrics (real GDP growth, unemployment, terms of trade, current account balance, and net direct investment flow) — variables with a high degree of independence — that are key indicators of investment attractiveness. We attempt to identify which economies are emerging as new economic powerhouses in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.

With property prices rising rapidly in many cities across China, speculation is only increasing about an expanding real estate bubble. While many believe that the Chinese market is experiencing a manageable boom, there are others who argue that it is a bubble waiting to burst. This study focuses on Chinese macroeconomic fundamentals in general, and the real estate sector in particular, to evaluate the possibility of a credit-driven property bubble in China.

Data trends — rising external debt, high current budget deficit, and shrinking GDP — have been warning that Greece was headed for trouble, and, moreover, that Portugal may be headed down the same path. On the other hand, Spain, Italy, and the UK appear to be on more solid footing. Our analysis shows that productivity is not to blame for the financial turmoil. We also note that the Greek bailout is weakening the euro, boosting export-driven eurozone economies, like Germany’s.

Is a double-dip recession unavoidable? Since the current US economic expansion began, some people have been insisting that the US economy will fall back into recession in light of the hurdles it faces after enduring one of its most acute financial crises. However, the likelihood of a double-dip recession is very low and, even if it can’t be completely discarded, none of the indicators that normally support such a conclusion are present: no interest rate rise, no yield curve inversion, no oil price increase, and no decay in corporate profits.

Given some of the concerns in the market that companies that issue earnings guidance focus too much on short-term profits, it would be interesting to see if ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) scores, which indicate a focus on long-term value, confirm this thesis. This note examines if there is a link between corporate guidance and ESG scores.

We identified top performers within the Chinese Water Utilities sector, based on their historical operating efficiency, that are most likely to benefit from potential opportunities in China’s resource management. These companies, as a group, have outperformed their overall sector index significantly over the last five years. A China Water Utilities – Top Operating Efficiency Index can aid long-term investors looking to play the resource management theme with exposure to Chinese equities.

In this study, we examine the current state of the fixed income/CDS market and analyze CDS performance by sector in the US. Our analysis also seeks to determine: a) if the CDS market is stabilizing, b) if the market is correctly pricing credit risk, c) the attractiveness of bonds relative to equities for investment, and d) the relative risk levels of major regions across the world.

Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) issues are increasingly gaining attention from all types of stakeholders, ranging from government to media to investors and asset managers. As more asset managers assess ESG exposure, and even use it as a basis for investing, it becomes important to understand and evaluate the degree to which ESG efforts can be maintained, creating long-term value, while reducing risk.

What is driving the deficit to historic highs? Should investors be concerned that rising budget deficits could spur inflationary pressures and higher interest rates? Is the bond market reflecting the deficit pressures? With deficit levels expected to remain high over the next few years, what would be the best investment strategy for bond investors? In this study, we look to answer these questions, with a primary focus on linkages between federal deficits and bond markets.

This Week in Earnings provides analysis and commentary on aggregate estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations.