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Report Archive - GDP

Beware the Double Dip . . . Just Not Yet
A Tale of Four Double-Duty Indicators
07-Jul-2010
Is a double-dip recession unavoidable? Since the current US economic expansion began, some people have been insisting that the US economy will fall back into recession in light of the hurdles it faces after enduring one of its most acute financial crises. However, the likelihood of a double-dip recession is very low and, even if it can’t be completely discarded, none of the indicators that normally support such a conclusion are present: no interest rate rise, no yield curve inversion, no oil price increase, and no decay in corporate profits.
Regions: United States
Authors: Juan Crespo
Products: Datastream
Keywords: economics, GDP, interest rates
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Budget Deficits and Bond Markets
Analyzing the Relationship Between Deficits, Inflation and Yields
07-Jun-2010
What is driving the deficit to historic highs? Should investors be concerned that rising budget deficits could spur inflationary pressures and higher interest rates? Is the bond market reflecting the deficit pressures? With deficit levels expected to remain high over the next few years, what would be the best investment strategy for bond investors? In this study, we look to answer these questions, with a primary focus on linkages between federal deficits and bond markets.
Regions: United States
Authors: Radhika Kamath
Products: Datastream
Keywords: bonds, budget deficit, economics, fixed income, GDP, interest rates
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Another Greek Tragedy in the Making?
How a Financial Crisis Can Be Identified Ahead of Time
19-Mar-2010
Data trends — rising external debt, high current budget deficit, and shrinking GDP — have been warning that Greece was headed for trouble, and, moreover, that Portugal may be headed down the same path. On the other hand, Spain, Italy, and the UK appear to be on more solid footing. Our analysis shows that productivity is not to blame for the financial turmoil. We also note that the Greek bailout is weakening the euro, boosting export-driven eurozone economies, like Germany’s.
Regions: Europe, Global, Greece, United Kingdom, United States
Authors: Sridharan Raman
Products: Datastream
Keywords: budget deficit, currency, economics, foreign exchange, GDP
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