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Report Archive - Juan Crespo

Beware the Double Dip . . . Just Not Yet
A Tale of Four Double-Duty Indicators
07-Jul-2010
Is a double-dip recession unavoidable? Since the current US economic expansion began, some people have been insisting that the US economy will fall back into recession in light of the hurdles it faces after enduring one of its most acute financial crises. However, the likelihood of a double-dip recession is very low and, even if it can’t be completely discarded, none of the indicators that normally support such a conclusion are present: no interest rate rise, no yield curve inversion, no oil price increase, and no decay in corporate profits.
Regions: United States
Authors: Juan Crespo
Products: Datastream
Keywords: economics, GDP, interest rates
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The Long Sideways Commodities Run
Long-Term Price Stagnation Looming?
28-Jun-2010
From 1980 to 2005 commodity prices remained rangebound. Thirty years earlier, from 1952 to 1972, something similar had happened. However, two different and distinct price jumps occurred between and after those two periods. The symmetry of these four periods is not, curiously enough, mirrored by economic growth. Is the pattern set to repeat?
Regions: Global
Authors: Juan Crespo
Products: Datastream
Keywords: commodities
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Is the Gold Rush Here to Stay?
Implications for the US Dollar
03-Dec-2009
Based on a gold price behavior pattern that can be traced back to 1968, the price of gold may appear headed for a significant correction, potentially opening the door for a strong dollar period and concomitant commodity price stagnation or decline.
Regions: United States
Authors: Juan Crespo
Products: Datastream
Keywords: gold
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